My diagnosis would be the video card too. Before you jump to replacing laptop hardware its a good idea to do some software-only tests to eliminate other possibilities.
Do a BIOS update and if you have the nVidia graphics, do a video bios update (assuming you can - I've never tried on a laptop). Can you do a video bios update on integrated graphics? If you can, (hopefully someone knows...) do that too.
What MaxNH suggested is another thing to try but you could also get a bootable CD and boot off that to be sure Windows isn't the culprit. It could also be the boot sector on the HDD, and a complete system recovery (with reformat) could fix that. If it is windows, you can still do the system recovery.
If you have integrated grapics, you will have to replace the whole motherboard. If you have dedicated graphics, you still may have to replace the whole mobo, but maybe not. If you're pretty handy with tools, you may be able to do it yourself, but I'd suggest a service depot.
You can also call Toshiba and see if they'll cover it - 2 mos past warranty is probably too much, but maybe they'll be in a holiday mood. Well, one can hope, even if it is a slight chance.
Mike.