What tech is most likely to become obsolete in your lifetime?

Discussion in 'Hardware' started by desertlap, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    Saw this on Gizmodo this morning. It's actually a pretty thought provoking article for those of us that frequent this board as we tend to be early adopters.

    When I read the headline, my first thoughts were a couple of technologies where my early expertise propelled me forward in my career (and that now date me a bit..), SCSI and Token Ring.

    For those that don't know SCSI (Small Computer Systems Interface/Interconnect) was one of the first high speed external buses for connecting devices such as hard drives and scanners.

    Token Ring was arguably the first reliable, relatively high speed (for the time) networking interface, protocol and assorted hardware and software.

    The point that the article makes rather well is that though the specific tech is obsolete , the core idea is still very much with us, just evolved eg, Thunderbolt and WiFi

    Good read regardless
    https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/what-technology-is-most-likely-to-become-obsolete-durin-1836542777
     
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  2. JoeS

    JoeS I'm all ears Senior Member

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    A good read from Gizmodo, now I've seen it all! :D

    I think it's a long shot, but I'm hoping for the end of the internal combustion engine. Pouring liquid into a piece of tech and having it roar and expel fumes already feels very old-timey.
     
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  3. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    Yes, not to get too political but I've never understood the resistance to renewable energy in some circles. Far better for the planet than fossil fuels and it would seem a natural thing to transition the workers in those industries that way, good for them and the economy.
     
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  4. lovelaptops

    lovelaptops My friends call me Jeff Senior Member

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    I certainly agree; yours may be the understatement of the, er, day! Just read a long article in Technology Review on the tech that will be required to get the goals of the Paris Accord, and it will take this, and so much more!
     
  5. YVerloc

    YVerloc Scribbler - Standard Member

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    Oh, I’ve already had a horse shot out from under me. Trained as a traditional animator.

    In the not too distant future, we will extract imagery directly from the imagination via a helmet-based brain interface. My entire career will thus become obsolete, and many associated industries will drastically change or falter. Skills I have invested my entire life trying to master - not just as an adult but from the time I could hold any kind of mark making tool in my hand at all - these skills will cease to have any market value. In a cruel twist of fate it will turn out to be the case that the reason I have spent my entire conscious life in pursuit of making images is due to the fact that my imagination is naturally deficient and my art making obsession has been a lifelong attempt to overcompensate for this handicap. Unsuspecting people who have never given even the merest thought to making any kind of art will - with the help of this new imagination-camera - suddenly be revealed as the geniuses of our age. And those of us who slaved away countless lonely nights over our drawing tables will be relegated to historical footnotes.

    How do you like them apples?
     
  6. JoeS

    JoeS I'm all ears Senior Member

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    I have good news: those who never thought of making any kind of art do not have the creativity that the entertainment industry craves. Those are not the brains they will be looking to harvest..

    Dun dun duuuunnnn
     
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  7. lovelaptops

    lovelaptops My friends call me Jeff Senior Member

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    Fascinating - and scary. Can you provide a link to an article about this?
     
  8. YVerloc

    YVerloc Scribbler - Standard Member

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    That was it. You got it straight from the horse's mouth.

    However, here is an article about a recent study that shows one vector of current progress
    https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/neuroscientists-peer-into-the-minds-eye/

    Machine learning based approaches kind of miss the point. It's like trying to understand the nature of music by building a radio. With a radio, you can listen to radio broadcasts when the radio is 'tuned' to a transmission. An neural network that has learned to classify a brain's mental states and represent those states as images - such a neural network is analogous to the radio. The learning process has attuned it to the brain. Although listening to music on the radio may be helpful if you'd like to understand music, the radio doesn't tell you anything about music /per se/, it merely lets you listen in. Ditto machine learning approaches to mind reading.

    What is missing is insight into the 'codec'. How are shapes encoded in the brain? It's maybe interesting that we can decode shapes stored in the brain (if indeed we can) ... but we don't want a black-box kinda-sorta-decoder. We want the source code for the codec.

    I'm working on this very problem. Not as my day job, of course. But you can tell from the timestamp (after midnight on a Friday night) that I'm not at my day job. I'm at my desk working away on the theory of shape. If anyone's going to nuke my career, it might as well be me.
     
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  9. JoeS

    JoeS I'm all ears Senior Member

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    Haha nice. I guess the answer to the thread title may be “humanity” as sentient computers take over the world..

    It’s fascinating stuff. The interesting thing is that we’re no longer writing all source code ourselves, but rather ‘evolving’ intelligence by “simply” training ever more complex deep convolutional neural networks. I think we’re already at the point where a trained system does something and we’re wondering “why does it do that”, with the main option being “modify the training data”, also known as “we didn’t raise it right”. Very soon we’ll need computer psychologists. Our demise will be utterly fascinating.
     
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