Surface Pro 8 - Speculation and Rumors

Discussion in 'Microsoft' started by dstrauss, Jul 9, 2020.

  1. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    I honestly don't know, but think it will come down to the timing of when MS readies a Go3 . In other words MS likely would prefer somebody else "road test" those new chips first. Or to put it another way, if the Go 3 comes out next spring, it's not likely to have the newer chips, next fall/winter possibly a different story.

    The surface line is tricky for them in my opinion for a variety of reasons to integrate the latest greatest. Witness the release of the Surface Laptop Go which has tenth gen core I instead of 11th gen. OTOH, they get exceptional performance out of that chipset compared to most of their peers.

    PS: @dstrauss Truly implementing TB4 would require at least a minimal rework of the current pro, simply due to the supporting hardware for it being "on the wrong side" of the motherboard compared to current gen.

    Or at least that's what we've observed from the small number of evo motherboards we've seen to date.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
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  2. sonichedgehog360

    sonichedgehog360 AKA Hifihedgehog Senior Member

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    I am taking the time to look more closely at the timelines to try to note some patterns and gauge the likelihood of what to expect.

    Fact 1: The Surface Go 2 was released on May 12th of this year or Q2 2020. Its flagship processor, the Core m3-8100Y, dates back to Q3 2018 or 1.75 years before its release. The lower-tier processor, the Pentium Gold 4425Y, dates back to Q1 2019 or 1.25 years before its release.

    Fact 2: The Surface Go was released on August 2, 2020 or Q3 2018. Its only processor, the Pentium Gold 4415Y, dates back to Q2 2017 or 1.25 years before its release.

    Outcome 1: I believe this outcome is less likely. Deductively, that gives us a likely range of 1.25 to 1.75 years between the release of a processor and the time Microsoft implements at release in a Surface Go product. Based on all this information, I think that if a Surface Go 3 was released in the first half of next year, it would have to be a 10th Gen 14nm or 10th Gen 10nm processor, such as the Core i3-10110Y or Core i3-1000G1. Both of these processors were released in Q3 2019 and would be 1.5 years to 1.75 years old at that point. That is well within that 1.25 to 1.75 year waiting period we are seeing before Microsoft implements a processor in the Go. The caveat here is they would have waited only a year to refresh the Go line, when they appear to be following a wider, almost 2-year cadence (working off of 1.75 years between the Go 1 and Go 2's releases).

    Outcome 2: I believe this outcome is more likely. I would imagine that we will see an 11th Gen Tiger Lake processor in the Go 3 if the Go 3 is released in Q1 2022. Likely candidates of processors would be the Pentium Gold 7505 (touched on earlier) and the Core i3-1120G4 (Y-class). These two processors were released in Q3 of this year 2020, and would be 1.5 years old at that point, well within the 1.25- to 1.75-year-old pattern. A Q1 2022 release date also just so happens to coincide with the current 1.75-year release cadence that the Go 2 followed, which came out 1.75 years after the original Go.

    Analysis: To all reading, the Go line's timelines are not much to work off of since the Go product line is still very new by Surface standards with it being only on its second incarnation so far, meaning there are not many data points. But I believe the second outcome would be the most likely outcome unless Microsoft is planning on a more aggressive release schedule with the Go line (perhaps @desertlap has some insight on this especially in light of his information on there potentially being an AMD option or them moving to AMD for the Go line). Either of these outcomes is what I believe is a likely trajectory for the Go 3 if Microsoft goes the traditional, conventional Intel route that the rest of their Surface family has generally followed in most recent history.

    And the second outcome would be a nice step-up for the @Bronsky's of the forum, with not much value add processor-wise for the first outcome. In the case that outcome one comes to fruition, I would recommend passing up the Go 3 for the Go 4 in that case since there would be minimal differences in performance, much like the Surface Pro 5 saw minimal gains over the Surface Pro 4. That is unless, of course, Microsoft pulls some kind rabbit out of their hat and puts in a worthwhile feature (such as OLED) though I feel for a value-oriented line, that is right now fairly unlikely.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
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  3. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    By 2022 Apple will be selling the 2nm M3 - codenamed "Invisible"
     
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  4. sonichedgehog360

    sonichedgehog360 AKA Hifihedgehog Senior Member

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    When that invisible hand that you learned about in economics takes on a whole new, ominous meaning... :vbbiggrin:

    One hand to squash them all. o_O

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020
  5. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    Don't you think your flagship halo device at least deserves that much effort. It's like that old Flip Wilson routine about the ancient Roman inventor who invented vinyl records and spent the rest of his life sitting in front of the Colosseum whining "Damn, I wish someone would invent a record player..."
     
  6. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    So. I'm going to open the door at least a crack, that we might get a more significantly redesigned Surface Pro 8.

    Reason one: The integration of Thunderbolt 4 in to the core chipset. I've already talked above about how they might (or might not) integrate it to the Pro itself.

    Reason two : I only learned this yesterday as our own designers were looking at a couple of core I 11th gen motherboards. The "hmmm" moment was that the motherboards had the core power management hardware integrated. The current pro 7 and earlier has separate discrete hardware for that.

    How this might relate to a Pro 8 is that for one thing, the motherboard could be smaller and thus create more room in the current enclosure or possibly the option to make it smaller/thinner.

    Secondarily to the above, initial testing of the 11th gen core I motherboards shows some overall improvements in power efficiency though we haven't really qualified that yet. That might also allow possibly a smaller battery and thus a thinner enclosure.

    Reason three: So this is 100% in the rumor/speculation realm but it has been a reliable indicator for us in the past of future releases from MS.

    In our latest parts list, there are four new SKUS that based on their general format, look to be type covers for the pro line. As before they don't have actual description or price at the moment. So it's possible and maybe even likely, that they are just new color options. However that many new colors at once would be unusual for MS in that it hasn't happened before.

    As usual these "mystery SKUs" typically show up 4-12 weeks before actual announcement/release of products.

    And if past is prologue... The last time we saw this, it was the first indicator of what was the Surface Go 2.

    So..... again, rumor and speculation on my part :)

    Happy Thanksgiving to all

    PS: I'm still inclined to believe that we will get just a simple spec bump and that they likely just will not enable TB4 on the USBC port:(
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2020
  7. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    If this turns out to be true (I'd bet 80% on the odds) it will just be more confirmation that MS is all in on Cloud PC and doesn't care what you call a PC anymore. Just think about it, they get revenue (subscription) for Windows, Office 365, and your other (cloud installable) Windows software, no matter what platform you choose to play on...just think, your next Galaxy Fold Note or iPhone 13 Pro Max can be your ONLY computer...

    Listening to Windows Weakly these past several weeks leads me to believe Cloud PC will be a complete virtual cloud reflection of your laptop/desktop - how they handle the other software installs is still beyond my comprehension, but you get it ALL via Cloud PC.
     
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  8. daddyfish

    daddyfish Scribbler - Standard Member

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    Would be funny if the Pro 8's USB C port would also be thunderbolt. Thinking about it, it would make it one the more flexible port selections on a tablet / laptop (usb a, free usb c / Thunderbolt, magnetic charger, micro SD, jack).

    Ps: I actually like the magnetic cable, since I do not have to worry my brothers (baby) child is going to pull the charger cable with the tablet from the table, only the cable... :cool:
     
  9. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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  10. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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