Microsoft Surface launch date predictions and rumors

Discussion in 'Microsoft' started by JoeS, Jan 23, 2021.

  1. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    AMEN!
     
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  2. desertlap

    desertlap Pen Pro - Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Steve S , and @dstrauss

    So I think you are misunderstanding the quote about customers not knowing what they want until you show it to them as some how being arrogant or nefarious.

    It was actually originally stated in the context of a discussion around the idea of disruptive innovation. It's been used for example for more lower level tech like flash memory for example, as a precursor for the practical rise of digital cameras or for that matter smart phones.

    You could argue that Apple was the first to present a graphical UI to computer users that you could actually buy.

    Again I'm not arguing the merits per se, just the idea of showing people (and getting them to think about it) another way...

    It gets back to the fundamental of disruptive tech which is that in initially it may have significant drawbacks for current mainstream uses, but opens up truly new ones.

    For that matter you could argue PC's themselves were that once, when they started initially to replace typewriters or dedicated word processors for printed output in businesses.

    And topic specific, the original surface and surface pro are examples of the same. The integration of the kickstand and the still in my opinion best in class removeable keyboard, got people like me to reconsider what they were carrying around as a primary device which to me were just minor variations on the same old concept of a clamshell.

    All the more my disappointment in MS for not consistently innovating the concept with the last to market product being the Surface Books.

    And this is my single favorite example of what I'm talking about. This should have failed according to conventional wisdom as it both could not record and didn't have at least a mono speaker as every other cassette recorder on the market. As a kid I saved up all summer to buy one at our local Sears store.
    I Miss the Walkman (gizmodo.com)
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2021
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  3. Steve S

    Steve S Pen Pro - Senior Member Super Moderator

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    <<...I think you are misunderstanding the quote about customers not knowing what they want...>>

    @desertlap : Respectfully, I do not misunderstand. I am asserting a subtly different point, namely that users are constrained to work within the framework of any given product's design and will adapt to those constraints. If the OEM then collects telemetry on the use of that product, the only thing they learn is how the user adapted, not what the user might do with different constraints (or with no constraints). Basing product evolution decisions largely based on this telemetry could (actually, will) lead the OEM to refine their product into a blind alley.

    One of my many career jobs was systems engineer on a completely unique large-scale simulation system. We would insert new products into the sim and observe how they would be used. The observation above was derived from that experience...
     
  4. JoeS

    JoeS I'm all ears Senior Member

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  5. desertlap

    desertlap Pen Pro - Senior Member Senior Member

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    Perhaps I didn't state as clearly as I should have as well. I should have said my purpose in using the quote.

    I completely agree with you about the telemetry trap. In my own company we see that frequently eg. we track which functions are most used and which aren't. And frequently senior management see the "most used" and responds with "let's do more of that" instead of digging a bit deeper to see that maybe the reason it's not getting used is because of the way we implemented it.

    For us it also takes some education of the customer and ourselves. Specifically to storage for example, initially our devices had field replaceable storage. This was 100% due to the the fact that our devices are often used in the most extreme environments and spinning hard drives were by far the single biggest point of failure.

    As flash storage finally got capacious enough, we started switching to it albeit at a higher price, but it also allowed us to further ruggedize our devices essentially "'sealing it" inside and thus better protecting the other components.

    To your customer feedback loop point, there was resistance in our long term customer base simply because they had become accustomed to having that and it took a real effort on our part to reorient them and show that the ROI on their $40k each devices was better this way.

    and BTW: no need to "respectfully" disagree. One of the best things about this place is how thoughtfully most here can point out where I'm wrong or may have missed something in my thinking. In other words "respectfully" is built in to most responses here, yours included and I try to respond in kind :)
     
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  6. daddyfish

    daddyfish Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    , tough one, on one hand Balmer introduced Surface line (I guess?) but I feel it matured and got more stable under Nadella (I would say matured from Pro 3 / 4 and became more stable from Pro 5). And SSD hatches was also unexpected but very nice. I also prefer overall W10 over older iterations even though tablet support really needs an improvement.
    I do hope MS sticks to their 'modern' guns now (10X, UWP, YourPhone, DuoOS etc.). They really need to have a longer breath than they usually have with new products.
     
  7. Steve S

    Steve S Pen Pro - Senior Member Super Moderator

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  8. desertlap

    desertlap Pen Pro - Senior Member Senior Member

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    Somewhat divergent from the thread topic, but this has to be quietest January in my memory for new product announcements. Each of the companies have had some, but just a handful compared to prior years.

    It has to be Covid related, so now the question is if they are still coming but delayed, or just not a lot new this year?
     
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  9. Steve S

    Steve S Pen Pro - Senior Member Super Moderator

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    <<...now the question is if they are still coming but delayed, or just not a lot new this year?..>>

    I'm not too surprised by this, the same thing has happened in several other areas that I track. My guess is that the products in the development pipeline will mostly just be delayed, with a few being canceled as the results of our "new normal"...
     
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  10. desertlap

    desertlap Pen Pro - Senior Member Senior Member

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    Good to know. We haven't heard anything from our primary OEM partners such as Samsung either way and of course MS is always a "read the tea leaves" type exercise.

    OTOH, we have heard quite a bit from the supply side with for example SSDs larger in capacity than 128GB about to be scarce for the next couple of months. And that also is why there haven't been any announcements of major devices with mini LED displays. Allegedly even Apple got caught by that.
     
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