Intel 7nm chips delayed to 2022!!!!

Discussion in 'Hardware' started by desertlap, Jul 24, 2020.

  1. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    Ok, Intel really has a serious problem. And the icing on the cake is that these still have most of the Spectre flaws, only partially mitigated by software that sits at the OS level.

    Please MS get serious about your relationships with Qualcomm and AMD

    https://www.engadget.com/intel-7nm-delay-013258837.html
     
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  2. nnthemperor

    nnthemperor Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    Yeah, was reading that a couple of minutes ago and kept falling asleep. All this silicon jargon seems to fly over my head, but this one i caught the implications right on. I agree it's not looking good for any plans MS has based on Intel.

    Sent from my SM-P205 using Tapatalk
     
  3. sonichedgehog360

    sonichedgehog360 AKA Hifihedgehog Senior Member

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    Just to provide some perspective, I keep tabs with some industry insiders including Charlie Demerjian (of the definitive semiconductor insider news source SemiAccurate) and Twitter user RetiredEngineer. Charlie gets a bad rap for being brutal against Intel for the last five years but the truth is he was unhesitatingly brutal against AMD about Bulldozer during their dark times as well.

    He just shares the un-sugarcoated truth that his moles uncover and because his sources are always spot-on, companies will plunk down $1000 a seat just for an annual professional subscription. Based on Charlie’s internal sources which I can share from his free tier, 7nm is far worse than what Intel is making it out to be. Intel claims a mere six-month delay for 7nm but they are excluding ramp up now in that calculation so they really won’t be selling 7nm products until 12 months after their previously quoted timeline.

    The revelations are so damning that an investigative lawsuit has been called because Intel has been caught consciously concealing vital warnings about their 7nm process from their investors, warnings that SemiAccurate has been vigorously stating for perhaps a year now. (Arguably, Intel had also missed fully disclosing several important warnings for 10nm in investor calls but they somehow managed to dodge a bullet several times with that.) If you thought Intel stock finished its free fall, think again. It is likely on a course to bleed much more as this unprecedented legal investigation unfolds:

    upload_2020-7-27_4-36-36.jpeg

    You might also want to read from SemiAccurate’s last two articles. It is all true but for long-time SemiAccurate readers, these “startling” revelations comes as no shocker at all. It is sad when a company willfully withholds this information so much that a third party is many months ahead in breaking this news. 7nm likely will haunt Intel more than if they had just come clean and took full ownership before sliding down this slippery slope to begin with:

    https://www.semiaccurate.com/2020/07/23/an-examination-of-intels-7nm-timeline-delay-claims/

    https://www.semiaccurate.com/2020/07/24/what-is-going-on-with-intels-ponte-vecchio-gpu/
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
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  4. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    @sonichedgehog360 , with all due respect this and the other articles you cite are interesting but in many cases come across a bit like "the coming crash, why you should be buying gold..."

    In other words while in some cases they maybe factually accurate, the conclusions they spin out form them at a minimum. have a strong directional and motivational bias.

    That being said, Intel is facing headwinds like they never have before, but its more due to broader market changes than their biggest (and arguably only direct) competitor showing better raw performance.

    Intel has become the behemoth that they are due to many smart decisions that hav nothing to do with performance. For PC makers for instances, the breadth of support available for manufactures, as well as the comprehensive range of chips in all performance and price ranges is something that so far no other company can come close to including ARM vendors such as Qualcomm.

    As one example of the tools that intel provides is detailed info on how say a core i5 10th generation power consumption varies at base clock versus full turbo or if you need a minimum level of IOPS, how many cores will be used to deliver that. Or in the portable space, what are the recommended airflow specs when you run that chip at 3.0GHZ for 30 sustained minutes.

    AMD provides much broader advice eg.. at what point with the current ryzens should you consider active cooling versus passive.

    Not to mention things like VPRO and other corporate management tools.

    In consumer, as I preach to my folks and have mentioned here, the subset that focuses on raw performance and knows enough to make a buying decision based on that is miniscule. More broadly consumers either don't really care and go with either what's cheapest or are looking for a specific features.

    For example HP all but outright owns the consumer 17 inch laptop space. These aren't high performance machines, but they hit the mark for customers that are looking to replace their 8 year old windows 7 desktop. These 17 inch systems have a nearly as a big a display as their old 19 inch desktop, they still have a DVD drive, with the bonus that they can take it with them when they go visit the grandkids.

    Additionally my contacts in retail including Best Buy tell me that the large majority of consumers treat any non intel chip with skepticism at best and will choose a comparable intel based system, even at a price premium , unless their sales people intervene and educate. And of course how often that even occurs is probably not the majority of cases versus someone looking at handful of systems , finding a clerk and saying. "ok I'll take that one. And oh can you show me a bag to carry it in?"

    And just to be clear, I'm VERY impressed with the 4th gen Ryzen especially in the area of performance per watt. And we are looking at using them in at least one of our custom devices for that exact reason. And they have (mostly) solved the heat issues that were always an issue with their previous mobile offerings.

    TLDR, the latest Ryzen are superb chips that are meaningfully pushing the performance envelope, but relatively speaking they are the bee buzzing around the head versus the Mack truck that is headed towardIntel due to the broader changes in the market as to device use and choice.

    So once again a somewhat lengthy rant/diatribe/exposition from me from lockdown on a Monday morning. Maybe I should start a column... "The Desertlap/grumpy tech news" :mad:
    :p:D

    PS: The fact that intel is facing lawsuits is at this point is almost non news. They have been regularly sued for a zillion reasons since the 286.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  5. sonichedgehog360

    sonichedgehog360 AKA Hifihedgehog Senior Member

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    Hardly. I understand the articles seem a bit harsh and matter-of-fact but they are not of the investor opportunist, Seeking Alpha garden variety you mischaracterized them to be. SemiAccurate is not an investment blog or periodical by any stretch so that is a false correlation and I have following them for years and the site is spot on in its leaks. They are not “AMD good, Intel bad”, and have spoke illy about AMD, including even on the recent uneventful Renoir Ryzen 4000 desktop launch, which was a major fumble by their marketing department. The truth is Intel has been lacking any real form of innovation for the last five years where most of the company is instead driven by fat margins and budget sheets. Why, of course, yes, financials is always the big question for product companies like Intel. But without a quality product, they are eventually going to lose the majority share of consumer interest despite the shine of their logo. And even Intel’s logo has lost its luster with its recent redesign (Google it). And I disagree about the Intel brand’s marketing power argument: many office staff at work are now buying their kids AMD laptops because both Walmart employees and word of mouth informed them that was best, likely thanks to social media informing them that AMD is the better choice. Don’t discount the power of social media these days especially now how we have to rely on it more for communicating given the current world situation.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2020 at 1:42 PM
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  6. sonichedgehog360

    sonichedgehog360 AKA Hifihedgehog Senior Member

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  7. desertlap

    desertlap Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    @sonichedgehog360 I'm not trying to start an argument, just providing some "counter programming" to what comes across to me as close to boosterism on your part.

    Again I'll say it, the new Rzyens are excellent chips and purely on a performance per dollar ratio make intel look bad. What I'm trying to point out is that there is so much more that gets in to the decisions around PC technology adoption and that's where intel is simply in a different league from anyone else.

    And the "next 100 billion" article points out that is due at least as much to their graphics business and SOC stuff as the core processor business.

    I sincerely hope that they continue to gain ground as we all will benefit from a competitive market and I absolutely think that intel has grown complacent , but I also think it's not just AMD they should be worried about about Qualcomm and other ARM licensees too.

    Heck even in an indirect way they should be worried about apple too. Not that Apple is ever going to license their A series chips, but that a company will look at what they are doing based on the ARM architecture and think "why couldn't we..."

    Finally, I have a couple of customers that have used the founder of that site as a consultant. To say he's is virulently anti-intel is like saying that 105 degrees temperatures "are a bit on the warm side".

    PS: I'm surprised you haven't brought up Epyc. They are superb chips and that's the one place in our customer base where I see AMD making some significant inroads, albeit in the back office/server space. Though the caveat there is that they are linux not Windows deployments .

    PPS: At the Walmart level consumer, far and away the driver is price, price, price. The'd by computer with Joe Schmos chips if it had the right size screen and was $75 less than the other models. Once you start you start moving up the food chain where say Best Buy is, is probably the mid point where AMD has some opportunity, but it's still an uphill battle.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2020 at 3:33 PM
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