HP & Microsoft set to be rivals in 2011- Tabletpc2.com

Discussion in 'HP Slate' started by nnthemperor, Dec 22, 2010.

  1. nnthemperor

    nnthemperor Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    With HP's WebOs & Microsoft's Win 7 set to compete against each other on the slate form factor in 2011, what's makes anyone think HP would be promoting a Win7 slate ahead of it's Palmpad? It's obvious all the Bs about high demand or parts shortage causing the delay in delivery of the slate 500, is an orchestrated, albeit a stupid move by HP to frustrate the advocates of the device and force us to buy their I'll fated palmpad in 2011.
    Clearly they never expected the device to garner such popularity as to hit that many preorders on the very first day. Who makes a product and expects it not to sale. Microsoft must have noticed this too, which is why they are not showing any interest in the slate any more, but are rather promoting other manufacturers.
    Well HP, 'the society that shuns excellence in plumbing and extol shoddiness in philosophy is in for a hard time. Neither it's pipes nor it's theories will hold water'.
     
  2. Telstar

    Telstar Research Scientist

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    I find this an interesting view. Balmer has been completely distant from HP relative to the slate initiative....
     
  3. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    At one time I was one of the world's biggest conspiracy theorists, but I don't think that's what is going on here. I do believe HP has been unbelievably inept in handling this rollout and anticipating demand - BUT - even if tehy have gotten north of 40,000 orders in hand, that is still only ONE DAY of iFad sales and 2 days of Galaxy sales.

    What the Slate 500 proves is that there is finally a real market for Tablet PC. Size, components, performance, and the slate form factor now has a viable opportunity in the enterprise. And, surprisingly, it can still do all the media goodies, just not with as much flair - gee, how can I live without pages actually "turning" onscreen when reading a book - :rolleyes:

    All of that said, Apple has proven there is a sizable market for an internet appliance (face it, that's what the iFad is - more than an oversize iPhone but far less than the Slate 500), and HP may be able to penetrate that market with WedOS. I just hope against hope they really are using the same hardware because that bodes well for future Slates...


    That's not all bad...gee Steve, it's not a banjo...

    [​IMG]
     
  4. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    So why didn't HP just cancel the Slate and as long as the margins are the same what does it matter to HP if the device they sell is Windows or webOS? Bottom line is that webOS is going to be at best a third string quarterback. It's not going to of do iOS or Android or even possibly RIM devices. And Windows 8 could be a game changer.

    Depending on Windows 8 is done, Windows could become the #1 slate OS come 2013, at least the fastest selling that year as it will all new and Windows compatible.

    A LOT of dynamics going on here and even HP doesn't know what's really in it's best interest at this. webOS is not guaranteed at all to do well, it's history would indicate that it's not going to be a block buster.
     
  5. dceggert

    dceggert Owner of a TabletPC Museum Senior Member

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    It is still my theory that HP was initially planning an Android tablet when they became interested in using WebOS to differentiate their offering from the multitude being worked on by competitors. Remember the rumors leading up to CES 2010 about HP's Android tablet? As CES approached Microsoft loaded Win 7 on the planned device and asked HP to do them a favor and produce an offering by Fall 2010, which HP then did. The crudeness of the slate shown at CES was the result of this rush job trying to get the prototype at least working in time for CES to save MS some embarrassment on stage.

    As for hardware it was loaded on the very same prototype that was planned for the Android version at the time. Evidence of that is the 'leaked' specs prior to the show.

    After CES HP continued to develop the product and settled on new hardware specs (remember the device shown at CES was an Atom 1.2 GHz) and WebOS, to which they bought Palm to be able to access the OS. I believe the original plan was only one device; the PalmPad.

    Now, as to the Slate 500, it is indeed the same hardware implemented, but implemented sooner than the planned 2011 PalmPad execution to keep its favor to MS, but it was intended to be only in low volume because the hardware was not ready to be produced in higher volumes this early. Everyone knows the take rate for enterprise TabletPC's is low, a quick analysis was likely spent on the 2740P. The model was 'released' and put on the business website. The rest is now unfortunate history. How many would really sell between November 2010 and March 2011 anyway (when the full production capability and supply chain would be in full swing building both units)?

    As for the PalmPad, it likely has the originally planned assembly line which is not even producing yet, the originally planned supply volumes (suppliers are timing their own production and investments for January 2011), and shipping channels, all coming online about mid-January.

    Things to watch to see if this is indeed the case:
    - the place of manufacture remains the same for the PalmPad as the 500.
    - about mid-January the Slate 500 begins to fulfill orders in what would be consider a 'normal' way; ie: the wait shrinks to days instead of months. This would indicate the assembly line and parts are now finally arriving and are ready to go.
    - the PalmPad shows up on the 'home' storefront in March or April 2011 with no wait.

    I have no data, just a gut feel based on the sequence of events since the time prior to CES 2010. In the meantime, HP put out the Slate 500 as promised and MS claimed a victory that it had a Win 7 Slate out by Christmas.

    If this theory is true then the interesting thing to note is that one of the most successful TabletPC's in history may end up being implemented as an afterthought!

    On the other hand...it could be just my imagination running wild again...
     
  6. TheWerewolf

    TheWerewolf Care for a bite?

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    This is classic "zero sum game" thinking. It's VERY common on techblogs and with platform fans, but it's not very real world.

    The fact is that there are two *different* markets for slates (well, probably more than two, actually - the connoisseur would be another as would be the techgeek - but two that are relevant to this discussion): the producer and the consumer. Not surprisingly, there are a LOT more consumers than producers and consumers need products that are dumbed down - a lot.

    This isn't simply because the typical consumer isn't terribly techy (which is true), but because people in the consumer group don't want to have to understand the detailed nuances of the thing they use - they just want to get on with it and get something done.

    A car is a perfect analogy here - most people just want to jump in a car, put the key in, turn the key and go somewhere. They want a car that looks nice, works well, doesn't give them troubles and acts pretty much like every other car so that they don't have to relearn the thing everytime the buy a new one or rent one. They do NOT want to have to know how an internal combustion engine works. They don't want to know about oil pressure or any of that.

    That's the typical iPad user.

    A producer, on the other hand, typically has more complex tasks and has to pay far more attention to detail. They typically have a specialised skill set and are prepared to invest time and effort into learning complex tools well (or least well enough to get the job done). They develop 'workflows' that tend to have many interlocking steps and are difficult (and expensive) to change.

    That's the typical Windows 7 user.

    There is an overlap group as well - the Windows/Office user who learns JUST enough about Windows and Office to do their daily chores. (You'll see these jobs posted with "must have a good understanding of Word and Excel".)

    These people use Windows at work, but some own an iPad for personal use, although many also use Windows at home, mostly because they're familiar with it.

    This means that there's a LARGE market for dumbed down slates (iPad, Android, WebOS) - but the downside is that you have to keep the prices down and the margins kind of suck.

    There's a much smaller market for full function slates like the HP Slate, but the purchasers there are prepared to pay a premium for the device (we're paying $800 which almost every reviewer decries as 'too expensive' because they see Android slates at $300 and the base iPad at $500).

    HP is basically coming late to a consumer slate market that's rapidly being overloaded with choices. The iPad still has the huge lead, but Android slates (much like Android phones did with the iPhone) are rapidly growing marketshare - and when Android 3.0 comes out - which is the version targetted at slates - this trend will speed up.

    Will WebOS get any traction? Honestly? I think it's unlikely - much as the Palm Pre has pretty much failed to gain any traction in the cellphone market.

    It's not a question of quality or usability - it's that HP will have to grab the attention of the consumer - or offer a HELL of a price/feature point. Basically, HP has to offer something that makes the consumer go "WOW! - OK, I was going to buy an iPad - but this is really what I want." Maybe they have this - but I'm skeptical.

    So back to the original point - HP sells tons of Microsoft based devices. Not just in the consumer market - but in enterprise solutions too. Now they'll also be selling slates and phones NOT based on MSFT's solutions. Guess what - so does Acer, ASUS, Gateway, Gigabyte, Dell, LG... this isn't unusual - it's the norm.

    It always has been.

    BTW, MSFT - surprisingly - got it right with Windows Phone 7, and in my opinion beautifully illustrated why techbloggers should NOT be considered experts in tech. All the bloggers hated Windows Mobile 6. When Windows Phone 7 came out, they all sang praises of the "new modern operating system" Microsoft created "from scratch."

    Those of us who have been in the embedded Windows world kind of snickered at that because of course, WP7 is a thin .Net/Silverlight based shell that runs on top of Windows CE 6 - the same platform Windows Mobile (also another thin shell) sits on... in other words - it's the SAME OS they hated with a new coat of paint and it completely fooled them.

    All Microsoft has to do to make Win7 a good user experience for slates is take Metro (the WP7 shell) and adjust it a bit for larger tablets. They could even support running many WP7 apps and the WP7 app store on these slates.
     
  7. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    Case in point - the Barnes & Noble Nook Color at $249. A very nice little Android device maskerading as an e-Reader. Techies have rooted it, and even added Android marketplace - with prospects of a semi-user friendly conversion soon to emerge. As a WiFi only device, it kind of puts the Galaxy Tab to shame price wise...BUT...even more important from our perspective, puts HP on an uphill battle with many low-cost, "good enough" iPad wannabe tablets.
     
  8. Rick

    Rick Sr. Manager, Innovation and Experience

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    Very good points made overall... One thing to keep in mind is a similar configured iPad is $699.00 but does not include a dock, slate folio, cameras, pen, USB, or SD card reader.

    Rick
     
  9. dstrauss

    dstrauss Comic Relief Senior Member

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    I've been preaching everywhere I visit on the web that the SLT500 IS A BARGAIN. In fact, (and not giving you guys any bad ideas) this is an incredible feature set worth much more than the asking price. I get so tired of people (a) comparing it to the 16gb iPad, or (b) railing about being an overpriced netbook that I could almost scream (and generally do to the bloggers).

    Don't forget the 64gb SSD. Sure, Win 7 takes more space than iOS and Android, but particularly Android tablets are WAY UNDER in memory, often relying on microSD cards. With your SDXC compatibility, only card price will limit expandability of the SLT500.

    Rick - you have JUST GOT TO GO BEAT THE MARKETING DEPARTMENT WITH A BIG STICK AND MAKE THEM PAY ATTENTION TO THE INCREDIBLE DEVICE YOUR TEAM HAS DEVELOPED. This is not your predecessor's TabletPC! This is what we all hoped the TC1100 would grow up to be...

    Phil McKinnney needs to do follow-up interviews to his post-CES demo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js04hwygytw
     
  10. nnthemperor

    nnthemperor Scribbler - Standard Member Senior Member

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    The point is not whether the SLT500 is a hit device, It's not even a question of the price(we all preordered, didn't we?) the point is, why is HP not pushing this product or even making available for people who would want to buy it. Which techblog site said, "don't buy any device that it's makers are not willing to sell"(would you blame that site for making such an observation?). The slate is targeted at the enterprise- bs- what does it matter to HP if non enterprise(consumers)want the device afterall it's the same profit. But what would become of the Palmpad if those it is targeted at all purchase the SLT500 before it? Who will buy it? How will the $1.2b paid on palm be justified?
    This is why I don't think it is a conspiracy theory at all.
    But rightly, we will see if there will also be a shortage of parts & hence 6-wkd back order come March or April or whenever the Palmpad is released.
    I'm not being critical of HP, on hindsight, I think I'd do the same if I invested that much.
     
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